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Zastoji u globalnoj trgovini više su rezultat skoka potražnje nego zastoja u lancu opskrbe, rekao je ekonomist Svjetske trgovinske organizacije (WTO) Robert Koopman, prognoziravši popuštanje pritiska u narednim mjesecima.

WTO je u listopadu prognozirao popuštanje ogromne potražnje za robom početkom 2022., ali prognoze je pod znak pitanja dovela varijanta koronavirusa omikron, koja se počela širiti u drugoj polovini studenoga, ograničivši gospodarske aktivnosti.

Potrošači su u takvim uvjetima nastavili trošiti uglavnom na robu, zaobilazeći usluge, budući da nisu mogli ili htjeli izlaziti u restorane ni ići na odmor, objasnio je glavni ekonomist WTO-a.

Prekomjerna potražnja vjerojatno objašnjava dvije trećine do tri četvrtine vidne nestašice u trgovini robom, dodao je Koopman.

„Još uvijek stoji da je ta strukturna promjena u potražnji, podržana prikladno agresivnom, brzom fiskalnom i monetarnom politikom, rezultirala ovakvim ishodom u kojem mnogi pričaju o poremećajima u opskrbnom lancu”, rekao je dužnosnik WTO-a za Reuters.

Poremećaji u lancu opskrbe vidljiviji su po njegovim riječima u automobilskom i logističkom sektoru koji se prilagođava prelijelazu proizvodnje iz Kine u Vijetnam, Maleziju ili Indoneziju.

Koopman ipak ističe da vodeći američki pokazatelji, poput rezervnih brodova u lukama i cijena rabljenih automobila, pokazuju popuštanje pritiska, napomenuvši i da je pretovar u američkim lukama ubrzao.

„Prilično sam uvjeren da ćemo u iduća tri ili četiri mjeseca svjedočiti popuštanju inflatornih pritisaka”, kazao je dužnosnik WTO-a, i to za većinu robe i pod pretpostavkom da neće biti novog geopolitičkog ili zdravstvenog šoka.

Neke su kompanije ipak upozorile da su trgovinski kanali toliko začepljeni da će se poslovanje možda normalizirati tek krajem iduće godine.

WTO će u ožujku pozvati poduzeća, vlade i trgovinske stručnjake na razgovore o problemima u globalnim nabavnim lancima.

Čak i ako problemi do tada popuste, možemo još puno toga naučiti, rekao je Koopman.

"Svjedočili smo vrlo, vrlo brzim reakcijama fiskalne i monetarne politike dok dugoročni, fino kalibrirani opskrbni lanci nisu imali odgovarajuću fizičku ni regulatornu infrastrukturu za tako brzu prilagodbu", zaključio je dužnosnik WTO-a.

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Zastoji u globalnoj trgovini više su rezultat skoka potražnje nego zastoja u lancu opskrbe, rekao je ekonomist Svjetske trgovinske organizacije (WTO) Robert Koopman, prognoziravši popuštanje pritiska u narednim mjesecima.

WTO je u listopadu prognozirao popuštanje ogromne potražnje za robom početkom 2022., ali prognoze je pod znak pitanja dovela varijanta koronavirusa omikron, koja se počela širiti u drugoj polovini studenoga, ograničivši gospodarske aktivnosti.

Potrošači su u takvim uvjetima nastavili trošiti uglavnom na robu, zaobilazeći usluge, budući da nisu mogli ili htjeli izlaziti u restorane ni ići na odmor, objasnio je glavni ekonomist WTO-a.

Prekomjerna potražnja vjerojatno objašnjava dvije trećine do tri četvrtine vidne nestašice u trgovini robom, dodao je Koopman.

„Još uvijek stoji da je ta strukturna promjena u potražnji, podržana prikladno agresivnom, brzom fiskalnom i monetarnom politikom, rezultirala ovakvim ishodom u kojem mnogi pričaju o poremećajima u opskrbnom lancu”, rekao je dužnosnik WTO-a za Reuters.

Poremećaji u lancu opskrbe vidljiviji su po njegovim riječima u automobilskom i logističkom sektoru koji se prilagođava prelijelazu proizvodnje iz Kine u Vijetnam, Maleziju ili Indoneziju.

Koopman ipak ističe da vodeći američki pokazatelji, poput rezervnih brodova u lukama i cijena rabljenih automobila, pokazuju popuštanje pritiska, napomenuvši i da je pretovar u američkim lukama ubrzao.

„Prilično sam uvjeren da ćemo u iduća tri ili četiri mjeseca svjedočiti popuštanju inflatornih pritisaka”, kazao je dužnosnik WTO-a, i to za većinu robe i pod pretpostavkom da neće biti novog geopolitičkog ili zdravstvenog šoka.

Neke su kompanije ipak upozorile da su trgovinski kanali toliko začepljeni da će se poslovanje možda normalizirati tek krajem iduće godine.

WTO će u ožujku pozvati poduzeća, vlade i trgovinske stručnjake na razgovore o problemima u globalnim nabavnim lancima.

Čak i ako problemi do tada popuste, možemo još puno toga naučiti, rekao je Koopman.

"Svjedočili smo vrlo, vrlo brzim reakcijama fiskalne i monetarne politike dok dugoročni, fino kalibrirani opskrbni lanci nisu imali odgovarajuću fizičku ni regulatornu infrastrukturu za tako brzu prilagodbu", zaključio je dužnosnik WTO-a.

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‘pritisak će popustiti‘WTO: Zastoji u globalnoj trgovini više su rezultat rasta potražnje nego zastoja u lancu opskrbe

16. veljače 2022. - 13:08

Zastoji u globalnoj trgovini više su rezultat skoka potražnje nego zastoja u lancu opskrbe, rekao je ekonomist Svjetske trgovinske organizacije (WTO) Robert Koopman, prognoziravši popuštanje pritiska u narednim mjesecima.

WTO je u listopadu prognozirao popuštanje ogromne potražnje za robom početkom 2022., ali prognoze je pod znak pitanja dovela varijanta koronavirusa omikron, koja se počela širiti u drugoj polovini studenoga, ograničivši gospodarske aktivnosti.

Potrošači su u takvim uvjetima nastavili trošiti uglavnom na robu, zaobilazeći usluge, budući da nisu mogli ili htjeli izlaziti u restorane ni ići na odmor, objasnio je glavni ekonomist WTO-a.

Prekomjerna potražnja vjerojatno objašnjava dvije trećine do tri četvrtine vidne nestašice u trgovini robom, dodao je Koopman.

„Još uvijek stoji da je ta strukturna promjena u potražnji, podržana prikladno agresivnom, brzom fiskalnom i monetarnom politikom, rezultirala ovakvim ishodom u kojem mnogi pričaju o poremećajima u opskrbnom lancu”, rekao je dužnosnik WTO-a za Reuters.

Poremećaji u lancu opskrbe vidljiviji su po njegovim riječima u automobilskom i logističkom sektoru koji se prilagođava prelijelazu proizvodnje iz Kine u Vijetnam, Maleziju ili Indoneziju.

Koopman ipak ističe da vodeći američki pokazatelji, poput rezervnih brodova u lukama i cijena rabljenih automobila, pokazuju popuštanje pritiska, napomenuvši i da je pretovar u američkim lukama ubrzao.

„Prilično sam uvjeren da ćemo u iduća tri ili četiri mjeseca svjedočiti popuštanju inflatornih pritisaka”, kazao je dužnosnik WTO-a, i to za većinu robe i pod pretpostavkom da neće biti novog geopolitičkog ili zdravstvenog šoka.

Neke su kompanije ipak upozorile da su trgovinski kanali toliko začepljeni da će se poslovanje možda normalizirati tek krajem iduće godine.

WTO će u ožujku pozvati poduzeća, vlade i trgovinske stručnjake na razgovore o problemima u globalnim nabavnim lancima.

Čak i ako problemi do tada popuste, možemo još puno toga naučiti, rekao je Koopman.

"Svjedočili smo vrlo, vrlo brzim reakcijama fiskalne i monetarne politike dok dugoročni, fino kalibrirani opskrbni lanci nisu imali odgovarajuću fizičku ni regulatornu infrastrukturu za tako brzu prilagodbu", zaključio je dužnosnik WTO-a.

12. svibanj 2024 01:36